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Thu at 18:53
yep!
Thu at 18:53
I wonder how well the new raid/group finder works. I've only ever used it for celestials/ordos and that worked pretty well before the patch
Thu at 18:54
I thought someone said, in the raid on Tuesday, that it wasn't working right, but that was kind of to be expected since some realms had more trouble.
Thu at 18:55
Its a big patch. I am expecting some smoothing out time to be required
Thu at 18:55
There are a ton of listings for normal raids of SoO. Mina said ordos was under the custom heading.
Thu at 18:57
And, I'm out of here. I have to go to a meeting tonight so I won't be online. I have to be in the city tomorrow so I won't be here. I'll see you all Friday night.
Thu at 18:57
Have a good one, Gimm!
Thu at 18:57
Be careful and have fun?
Thu at 19:13
Ok, she's gone... PARTY TIME!
Thu at 19:13
lol
Thu at 22:55
QUICK, RAID THE GUILD FVAULT
4 hours ago
It's soooooo quiet.
4 hours ago
SHHHH I was napping.
4 hours ago
I did that earlier!
4 hours ago
Is there a way to change out the name in the mumble?
4 hours ago
Bored....
4 hours ago
probably
4 hours ago
I am grabbing candy.
4 hours ago
Share?
4 hours ago
Actually there is candy here!
4 hours ago
Sure, pyroblast cinnamon balls or soothing spearmint candy? You can't have my Tricky Treats!
4 hours ago
Those candies don't give stat boosts anymore :(
4 hours ago
Nope.
4 hours ago
Going for the Arthas costume?
4 hours ago
nah, the 2 new pets and the toy
4 hours ago
Same here. Pets first and if I have enough I'll get the toy.
4 hours ago
That's 450 treats, though. Out of a max of about 525
4 hours ago
Yeah.....I have more time than you do. lol
4 hours ago
I have a whopping 122 so far. But I am also taking lower level toons around for the xp they get gathering the candy.
4 hours ago
Yeah time is not abundant :(. I may stick an alt on bucket duty to get one of the items though. May be able to pull it off.
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Kukuru's Cache

7 replies
78 posts
+14 votes
Untagged users
So when Timeless Isle went live, I was curious how good the odds were at winning with this little "casino". Of course, by the time I had collected enough coins to want to start gambling, Blizzard had changed the drop rates on so many things in there from the PTR that no site I found had all that accurate information. So I decided to run my own test once it looked like Blizz was done messing with the drop rates. Listed below is my findings from 100 Keys (50,000 Coins, enough for 1 Burden of Eternity ), and at the very bottom is the TL:DR short notes.

Warning: This is a small sample size, so numbers at the bottom aren't exact. A more accurate test would consist of at least 1,000 Keys used, but for now this does give an idea of what to expect.


Test 1: Show

So first up I had Tarsan farm up some coins, and not knowing what to expect I didn't want to drop a lot of coins only to come out way behind where I started. The Timeless item, costing 7,500 from the vendor was a nice surprise at the time, and easily paid for the whole test by itself.

Test 2: Show

Next up I sent Herc around the island. As the previous test was small, I wanted to repeat it and see if I got similar results. Roughly he earned the same amount of coins as Tarsan, but the lack of anything beyond coins made the test set him back about 2,000 coins.

Test 3: Show

With the demo test out of the way, it was time to get some real results. After a nice chunk of Rare farming, once again Herc went forth to spend his hard earned coins. BAM right off the back we got not only enough Timeless pieces to pay off the whole test, but then a bonus piece as icing. Coin turnout was still close to what was seen in the first test, so after 50 keys the coin flow is already close to the avg. coins per chest listed at the bottom.

Test 4: Show

After a few days break from the isle it was time to return again and continue the tests. At this point I was pretty certain that I was certain the listed chance at the Pet and a Burden of Eternity on wowhead was still wrong so I would have to keep going to get better numbers. Low and behold, a Burden drops on Chest 2, and I dropped my jaw. Being that it cost 50,000 to buy it, it not only paid off this test I was doing, but also the cost of all the test I would be conducting here.

Test 5: Show

This test was done just not long after the previous test, with the gains Tarsan got on the last test, and with the odd coincidence all the big rares spawned one after another, he got the 15,000 coins to finish off the testing very quickly. As the between the coins coming in and the early Timeless piece, the test was already a profit, but then ANOTHER Burden drop?! My opinion on the cost of the gambling area was set. Unless Blizz changes drop rates again, then more or less its a better cost of your coins to spend them gambling then saving and buying Timeless pieces/Burdens from the vendors.




TL:DR
- Avg. Coins per Chest = 295
- % chance for a random Timless Piece = 7%
- % chance for a Burden of Eternity = 2%
- % chance at Bonkers = < 1%

For the cost of 20,500 coins (spent 50,000 coins, and earned back 29,500), I received 2 Burdens, and 7 Timeless Pieces. A 152,500 coin value. IMHO, the gambling is the way to go if your looking for Burdens or Epics
Posted Sep 21, 13 · OP
0  votes
67 posts
+6 votes
Officer
interesting article tarsan i found a couple good chests on my druid but felt for me it was'nt as good i will try it again
Posted Sep 21, 13
0  votes
66 posts
+7 votes
Untagged users
I go in the cave when I hit about 20,000 coins and then replay with the diminishing returns until I either get a Burden of Eternity or I run out of coins. I haven't been keeping tabs on the exact numbers but I've gotten 3 Bonkers, 2 Burdens and countless armor tokens. I vendor the armor tokens I don't need at 5G apiece - so thats a conversion bonus back to real gold, I disenchant the plate I don't need and the Sha's I get from that are worth big G still. So, all in all, the cave is full of "win".
Posted Sep 22, 13
0  votes
150 posts
+3 votes
Untagged users
I may have to try again but so far I wasn't impressed with drop rates. I used 15 keys and got a couple armor tokens and 1 bonkers. I didn't count the coins returned but I know it was at least half of what I spent.
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Posted Sep 22, 13 · Last edited Sep 22, 13
0  votes
338 posts
+22 votes
Untagged users
Wowhead seems to be down currently, but I seem to recall in the comments for the cache or for kukuru himself, a couple of people had run similar trials (post nerf). Their conclusion was that the drop rate on burden of eternity looked like it was probably set to average out to the same cost in keys as buying it directly...the difference being that chests also drop coins, armor, and a pet.

Your data suggests that the drop rate might make it cheaper straight up to go for keys, but like you said on anything with that low of a chance, you need a pretty big data set to get accurate statistics.

Either way, Kukuru seems like a better bet than just buying them, if you have the time and can afford to take a chance on being unlucky (and especially if you can still use the armor, for the toon in question or for alts)
Posted Sep 23, 13
0  votes
66 posts
+7 votes
Untagged users
Wowhead also notes that there is a less than 1% chance to either get a chest that has 1 coin or 10000 coins. Now, knowing that the RNG HATES M2 guess what?

Yea, I've gotten 1 coin twice. I have yet to see the 10000 coin chest.
Posted Sep 23, 13
0  votes
78 posts
+14 votes
Untagged users
No joke, I dropped another 30 keys over the weekend (all at once), and got 2 Bonkers, about 10 Timeless Tokens, and the dreaded 1 coin. Really should've been documenting it so I could start on the long haul for 1000 Keys used.
Posted Sep 23, 13 · OP
0  votes
99 posts
+2 votes
Officer
Initially, instead of saving up my coins for the 50k burden, I gambled all the time. Probably put in about 15k or so (plus reinvest any coins I got from chests). I did not encounter any burden's, but I did get a bonkers and a bunch of timeless pieces. I'm currently saving up for the 535 trinket. After that I may have another go at gambling. My luck gambling isn't usually that great...In that 15k I spend previously I found 4 or 5 1 coin chests :(
"I grab the bag from the demon"
Posted Sep 23, 13
0  votes
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