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Wed at 17:17
Ok, took a while, but I got the post in! yay!
Wed at 17:17
Ohhh! It was my 100th post, too!
Wed at 17:18
awesome
Wed at 17:32
Not too bad healing considering I only have dps gear on the druid. lol
Wed at 17:33
lol!
Wed at 17:33
Switch to some healing gear and you'll be golden!
Wed at 17:34
And lots of practice.
Wed at 17:34
Tonight I'll turn on Advanced Combat Logging and log with that. I guess it provides additional information to the logging site.
Wed at 17:35
I think I like this page layout better than WoL's.
Wed at 17:35
Yeah, I like it better too
Wed at 18:04
Hi.
Wed at 18:04
Hello
Wed at 18:14
I'm feeling pretty dazed—at least two gunman made attacks downtown today.
Wed at 18:15
Oh wow, that's terrible.
Wed at 18:15
They killed a reservist who was on parade guard at the national war cenotaph, at least one got into the parliament buildings and was killed by the Sargent at Arms (not normally a combat position, more a part of the operating staff of parliament…) right outside the room where the governing party was doing its daily briefing. No word on the second one yet. Seems a bit surreal.
Wed at 18:25
Sons school was in lock down mode for three hours because they didn't know where the second gunman had gone, so were taking no chances.
Wed at 18:25
Son's, not Sons
Wed at 18:49
Well, maybe just one shooter....all the reports of shootings aside from what I mentioned have turned out to be false, so it might have just been the one guy.
Wed at 18:49
(and now I'll stop pulling the conversation so far away from Azeroth)
Thu at 15:44
2 hours ago
It's Friday *does the kermit-the-frog type armwave and cheer, at least internally*
2 hours ago
And my cold seems to finally be easing up. This trial version of being able to breath is pretty awesome, and I'd like to subscribe to the full version, that has no limits on it.
2 hours ago
(also sorry for not being around much this week, been exhausted enough that when I've been on at all, my ambitions have reached only as far fighting fires and cleaning up stink bombs)
2 hours ago
But glad to see that SoO is going so well. I'd hoped to join in on Wed, but was still way too zombified.
2 hours ago
Whoever is posting "For a great time, apply to Spectacular Death" can stop that. Seriously.
2 hours ago
:::glares at Wor:::
55 mins ago
What? Who? Where?
55 mins ago
All I post is: "Are you good at dying? Apply to Spectacular Death!"
54 mins ago
(I figure if I spam that every 3 seconds in Stormwind it is all good, right?)
54 mins ago
Over run with applications?
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Kukuru's Cache

7 replies
78 posts
+14 votes
Untagged users
So when Timeless Isle went live, I was curious how good the odds were at winning with this little "casino". Of course, by the time I had collected enough coins to want to start gambling, Blizzard had changed the drop rates on so many things in there from the PTR that no site I found had all that accurate information. So I decided to run my own test once it looked like Blizz was done messing with the drop rates. Listed below is my findings from 100 Keys (50,000 Coins, enough for 1 Burden of Eternity ), and at the very bottom is the TL:DR short notes.

Warning: This is a small sample size, so numbers at the bottom aren't exact. A more accurate test would consist of at least 1,000 Keys used, but for now this does give an idea of what to expect.


Test 1: Show

So first up I had Tarsan farm up some coins, and not knowing what to expect I didn't want to drop a lot of coins only to come out way behind where I started. The Timeless item, costing 7,500 from the vendor was a nice surprise at the time, and easily paid for the whole test by itself.

Test 2: Show

Next up I sent Herc around the island. As the previous test was small, I wanted to repeat it and see if I got similar results. Roughly he earned the same amount of coins as Tarsan, but the lack of anything beyond coins made the test set him back about 2,000 coins.

Test 3: Show

With the demo test out of the way, it was time to get some real results. After a nice chunk of Rare farming, once again Herc went forth to spend his hard earned coins. BAM right off the back we got not only enough Timeless pieces to pay off the whole test, but then a bonus piece as icing. Coin turnout was still close to what was seen in the first test, so after 50 keys the coin flow is already close to the avg. coins per chest listed at the bottom.

Test 4: Show

After a few days break from the isle it was time to return again and continue the tests. At this point I was pretty certain that I was certain the listed chance at the Pet and a Burden of Eternity on wowhead was still wrong so I would have to keep going to get better numbers. Low and behold, a Burden drops on Chest 2, and I dropped my jaw. Being that it cost 50,000 to buy it, it not only paid off this test I was doing, but also the cost of all the test I would be conducting here.

Test 5: Show

This test was done just not long after the previous test, with the gains Tarsan got on the last test, and with the odd coincidence all the big rares spawned one after another, he got the 15,000 coins to finish off the testing very quickly. As the between the coins coming in and the early Timeless piece, the test was already a profit, but then ANOTHER Burden drop?! My opinion on the cost of the gambling area was set. Unless Blizz changes drop rates again, then more or less its a better cost of your coins to spend them gambling then saving and buying Timeless pieces/Burdens from the vendors.




TL:DR
- Avg. Coins per Chest = 295
- % chance for a random Timless Piece = 7%
- % chance for a Burden of Eternity = 2%
- % chance at Bonkers = < 1%

For the cost of 20,500 coins (spent 50,000 coins, and earned back 29,500), I received 2 Burdens, and 7 Timeless Pieces. A 152,500 coin value. IMHO, the gambling is the way to go if your looking for Burdens or Epics
Posted Sep 21, 13 · OP
0  votes
67 posts
+6 votes
Officer
interesting article tarsan i found a couple good chests on my druid but felt for me it was'nt as good i will try it again
Posted Sep 21, 13
0  votes
66 posts
+7 votes
Untagged users
I go in the cave when I hit about 20,000 coins and then replay with the diminishing returns until I either get a Burden of Eternity or I run out of coins. I haven't been keeping tabs on the exact numbers but I've gotten 3 Bonkers, 2 Burdens and countless armor tokens. I vendor the armor tokens I don't need at 5G apiece - so thats a conversion bonus back to real gold, I disenchant the plate I don't need and the Sha's I get from that are worth big G still. So, all in all, the cave is full of "win".
Posted Sep 22, 13
0  votes
150 posts
+3 votes
Untagged users
I may have to try again but so far I wasn't impressed with drop rates. I used 15 keys and got a couple armor tokens and 1 bonkers. I didn't count the coins returned but I know it was at least half of what I spent.
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Posted Sep 22, 13 · Last edited Sep 22, 13
0  votes
340 posts
+22 votes
Online on Site
Untagged users
Wowhead seems to be down currently, but I seem to recall in the comments for the cache or for kukuru himself, a couple of people had run similar trials (post nerf). Their conclusion was that the drop rate on burden of eternity looked like it was probably set to average out to the same cost in keys as buying it directly...the difference being that chests also drop coins, armor, and a pet.

Your data suggests that the drop rate might make it cheaper straight up to go for keys, but like you said on anything with that low of a chance, you need a pretty big data set to get accurate statistics.

Either way, Kukuru seems like a better bet than just buying them, if you have the time and can afford to take a chance on being unlucky (and especially if you can still use the armor, for the toon in question or for alts)
Posted Sep 23, 13
0  votes
66 posts
+7 votes
Untagged users
Wowhead also notes that there is a less than 1% chance to either get a chest that has 1 coin or 10000 coins. Now, knowing that the RNG HATES M2 guess what?

Yea, I've gotten 1 coin twice. I have yet to see the 10000 coin chest.
Posted Sep 23, 13
0  votes
78 posts
+14 votes
Untagged users
No joke, I dropped another 30 keys over the weekend (all at once), and got 2 Bonkers, about 10 Timeless Tokens, and the dreaded 1 coin. Really should've been documenting it so I could start on the long haul for 1000 Keys used.
Posted Sep 23, 13 · OP
0  votes
104 posts
+2 votes
Officer
Initially, instead of saving up my coins for the 50k burden, I gambled all the time. Probably put in about 15k or so (plus reinvest any coins I got from chests). I did not encounter any burden's, but I did get a bonkers and a bunch of timeless pieces. I'm currently saving up for the 535 trinket. After that I may have another go at gambling. My luck gambling isn't usually that great...In that 15k I spend previously I found 4 or 5 1 coin chests :(
"I grab the bag from the demon"
Posted Sep 23, 13
0  votes
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